After seven months of making gains, stocks face numerous potential risks that could cause September to live up to its reputation as the worst month of the year for the market.
According to the CFRA, the S&P 500 was positive only 45% of the time in September, all the way back to WWII. The average decline of 0.56% per month is the worst of all months, with February being the only other month with an average negative performance.
Strategists say it isn’t clear that a correction or retreat is coming, but the risks have increased. These include changes in Federal Reserve policy, the spread of the Covid-19 Delta variant, and political risks.
Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist, said it was too easy to assume the market will follow history. “Are there innumerable risks that could at any given time be a risk factor that could lead to a pullback of more than 3% or 4%? Absolutely, ”she said. “Could it be in September?
The decline is even worse in September, when it falls in the first year of the president’s tenure. On average, the S&P 500 has fallen 0.73% over these years. CFRA also noted that in years when the S&P 500 hit new highs in both July and August – like this year – the benchmark fell 0.74% on average, rising only 43% of the time.
The S&P 500 rose nearly 3% in August and closed on the last day of the month with flat performance. Over the year, the S&P 500 is up 20.4%.
September has built-in calendar risks, including the upcoming August employment report on Friday, which could determine how much the Fed will give in at its September 22nd meeting on plans to reduce its bond-buying program this year.
According to the Dow Jones, economists expect 750,000 new jobs in August. If the number is dramatically higher, market pros could see the Fed ramping up its plans to end its $ 120 billion monthly bond purchase program, possibly announcing it in September. If the salary data turns out as expected or weaker, the Fed could postpone its cut by a few months.
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Sonders said weaker data may not be negative for the market as it could suggest the Fed would slow down to reduce bond purchases. The gradual decline in bond purchases is seen as a precursor to a definitive rate hike by the Fed, although Chairman Jerome Powell stressed last week that the two are unrelated.
Sonders said the Fed will rely on the incoming data in making its decision. That makes the course of Covid and its impact on the economy an important factor.
“The bottom line is, unfortunately, the market is still at the mercy of this … virus,” said Sonders.
Back to normal?
September has also been hailed as a month in which Americans should feel a sense of normalcy as the children return to school in the classrooms. The labor shortage is expected to subside in September as parents of school-age children return to work and extended unemployment benefits expire.
However, the spread of the Delta variant of Covid has meanwhile caused more uncertainty in the economy, as some companies are postponing reopening dates. Businesses, from retailers to restaurants, are seeing a decline in consumer traffic in response to the spreading virus.
“Consumer confidence has already been overturned. It’s less about what the virus is doing now. We all assumed that things would be closer to normal in September,” said Julian Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy at BITG.
Charles Schwab in particular said the focus on the Fed will be a priority in September, but Covid is also a potential factor.
“I think the back-to-school component is more than just a potential needle mover,” said Sonders. “It’s about whether we can stay in general school operations without a much worse situation developing in some states where vaccination rates are lower. That is clearly a calendar-specific Covid risk.”
Emanuel said the market will be watching the Fed move ahead with its plan to curb bond purchases.
“This could be one of those when we get there on the 22nd and the job market,” he said.
Other risks in September could include inflation data. The consumer price index is due to be published on September 14th. If the data continues to run hot, Emanuel said it could push government bond yields higher, which is negative for the market.
Emanuel said the market is also keeping an eye on any discussion of when the US will hit the debt ceiling, as well as awaiting the fate of the multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure bill, which is expected to be debated by Congress in September.
The US exit from Afghanistan is also hanging over the market as a risk factor. The last evacuation flights left Kabul on Monday. “The event has come and gone and the political fallout could last longer, especially if there are signs of greater instability in the region,” said Emanuel.
September is the worst month
Emanuel was expecting a sizeable sell-off, and September and October are often troubled times.
“That doesn’t mean the market will go down, but in our view there is a lot of complacency and belief that the market can’t go down unless the Fed hikes rates,” he said.
He said investors should guard against a decline and suggests using options.
“We’re not saying you should be scared,” he said. “What we are saying is to be careful. You have fantastic profits in your portfolio.”
Sonders said there have been major corrections in the market beneath the surface, although some investors see the market as resilient as major indices hit records. She said her main concern was speculative foam.
“They had rotation corrections and bear markets in areas like meme stocks, SPACs and cryptos,” she said.
Sonders said it is maintaining outperformance and that is health care. It looks at factor-based rather than sector-based investments. She looks for factors that reflect quality in individual stocks and looks for things like stocks with strong free cash flow or earnings revisions.